"ABPW10 PGTW 160600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/160600Z-170600ZSEP2024//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160151ZSEP2024//\r\nREF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151951ZSEP2024//\r\nNARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n13.7N 144.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 142.9E, APPROXIMATELY 133 NM \r\nNORTHWEST OF GUAM. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A MONSOON \r\nDEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, \r\nGREATER THAN 600NM DIAMETER, WITH EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE \r\nEASTERN PERIPHERY AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. ANIMATED \r\nMULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, \r\nDISORGANIZED CENTER, WITH A WELL-DEFINED MESOVORTEX ROTATING WESTWARD \r\nALONG THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. ADDITIONALLY, MSI SHOWS VERY SPARSE \r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CORE, WITH EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED \r\nALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. A 160008Z ASCAT-B IMAGE \r\nREVEALS A 120 NM CORE OF WEAK WINDS (0-10 KNOTS), AN EXTENSIVE SWATH \r\nOF 25-35 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY, AND A RADIUS OF \r\nMAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 180 NM. A 160008Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE \r\nDEPICTS A VERY BROAD, EXPOSED, WEAK CORE, WITH A WIDE SWATH OF \r\nFRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING (ASSOCIATED DIRECTLY WITH THE GALE-\r\nFORCE WIND REGION). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG DIFFLUENCE \r\nALONG A DIVERGENT ASYMPTOTE, WHICH IS LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE \r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS \r\nTHE MONSOON DEPRESSION, WITH LOW VWS IN THE CORE BUT HIGH VWS \r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE BANDING. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A \r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK, WITH SLOW CONSOLIDATION OF THE WIND FIELD WHILE \r\nMAINTAINING GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN \r\nPERIPHERIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO \r\n35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. \r\nTHE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 152000) \r\nFOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n17.1N 124.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.6E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM \r\nNORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH FLARING \r\nDEEP CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS \r\nINDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 \r\nKNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. A 160101Z \r\nASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION, WITH PRIMARILY 15-20 \r\nKNOT WINDS, AND ISOLATED 25 KNOT WINDS UNDER THE CONVECTION TO THE \r\nSOUTHWEST. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD \r\nTRACK OVER LUZON, AND THEN INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WHERE THE SYSTEM \r\nSHOULD STRENGTHEN IN THE 1 TO 2 DAY TIMEFRAME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL \r\nPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 \r\nHOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE."