"ABPW10 PGTW 051930\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/051930Z-060600ZOCT2024//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051921ZOCT2024//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n11.8N 148.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 146.6E, APPROXIMATELY 132 NM \r\nNORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A \r\nCONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH MODERATE FLARING \r\nCONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A 051409Z OSCAT3 \r\nSCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALS MODERATE TO STRONG (25-30 KNOTS) WINDS IN THE \r\nNORTHERN QUADRANT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ASSOCIATED \r\nCONVECTION, HOWEVER, 15-20 KNOT WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO LOOSELY WRAP INTO \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE PAST 24-36 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS INDICATED THAT 99W IS IN AN OVERALL MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR \r\nFURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WEAK \r\nRADIAL OUTFLOW, AND LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR \r\n(VWS). THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W \r\nWILL GENERALLY TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. GLOBAL \r\nDETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 99W TRACKING NORTHWARD \r\nWITH SLOW AND STEADY INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS TO 23-28 \r\nKNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL \r\nFOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 \r\nHOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 051930) FOR FURTHER \r\nDETAILS.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE."