"ABPW10 PGTW 130600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZSEP2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n12.2N 126.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 125.8E, APPROXIMATELY 128 NM \r\nEAST-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\n(MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A WEAKLY DEFINED \r\nLOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 130029Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 15-20 \r\nKNOT WINDS WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WITH WEAKER WINDS TO THE \r\nSOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY \r\nFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 \r\nKTS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 C), OFFSET BY INTERACTION \r\nWITH THE PHILIPPINES AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL \r\nDETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL MOVE WESTWARD OVER \r\nTHE PHILIPPINES WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR ENSEMBLES, ECENS IS MORE \r\nAGGRESSIVE IN THE SHORT TERM THAN GEFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS \r\nARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED \r\nTO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"