"ABPW10 PGTW 172000\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/172000Z-180600ZSEP2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171351ZSEP2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n13.6N 136.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.3E, APPROXIMATELY 329 NM \r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\n(EIR) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WEAK \r\nCENTRAL CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES \r\nFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-\r\n15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD \r\nOUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE 90W TRACKING NORTH \r\nNORTHWEST WITH GFS BEING SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE THAN ECMWF. GLOBAL \r\nENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS 90W TRACKING NORTH NORTHWEST, WHILE ECENS \r\nPROJECTING HIGHER INTENSITY THAN GEFS.   MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE \r\nWINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n22.9N 167.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 165.9E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM \r\nNORTH OF WAKE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) \r\nDEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE TROPICAL WAVE AS IT \r\nBEGINS TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A \r\n171013Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 15-20 KNOT WINDS COMING DIRECTLY FROM THE \r\nSOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE \r\nCONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), \r\nWITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD \r\nOUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT \r\n91W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST WITH ECMWF BEING MORE INTENSE THAN THE \r\nOTHER MODELS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS 91W TRACKING WEST WITH \r\nECMWF HAVING A HIGHER INTENSITY GUIDANCE THAN GEFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL \r\nPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nIS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) TO \r\nMEDIUM.//"