"ABIO10 PGTW 302200\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN \r\nREISSUED/302200ZSEP2024-011800ZOCT2024//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.0S \r\n78.5E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED \r\nENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE \r\nNORTHWEST. THIS LLCC SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN PRESENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS \r\nBUT HAS BEEN SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING. A 301627Z  PARTIAL ASCAT-B \r\nSCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEAL STRONG (25-30KTS) WINDS IN THE EAST-\r\nNORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 91S IS IN A \r\nMARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LOW TO MODERATE \r\n(15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM \r\n(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT \r\nTHAT 91S WILL SLOWLY TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AND INTENSIFY OVER THE \r\nNEXT 48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 \r\nKNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE."