"ABPW10 PGTW 190600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/190600Z-200600ZOCT2024//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n12.5N 144.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 142.6E, APPROXIMATELY 142 NM \r\nSOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A \r\nBROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION WITH A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST \r\n95W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH, GOOD \r\nRADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C), \r\nAND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN \r\nGOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95W WILL GENERALLY TRACK IN A SLOW AND \r\nERRATIC DIRECTION NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nIS LOW.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n13.8N 138.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 138.9E, APPROXIMATELY 342 NM \r\nWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY \r\nWEAK VORTEX WITH LIGHT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION. THERE IS \r\nA DISCERNABLE VORTEX, AND DEEP MOISTURE FIELDS TO THE SOUTHWEST ARE \r\nBEGINNING TO FOCUS AROUND THE VORTEX. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS \r\nTHAT THE AREA IS NARROW, BUT NEARLY IDEAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD \r\nRADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (30C), AND MODERATE \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS). THE FAVORABLE AXIS OF DEVELOPMENT \r\nEXTENDING NEARLY DUE EAST THROUGH WEST BETWEEN THE 11TH AND 15TH \r\nLATITUDES. MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS HAS BEEN ALIGNING AND \r\nSHOWING MORE CONVICTION THAT A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL \r\nDEVELOP IN THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL \r\nPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nIS MEDIUM.\r\n     (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"