"ABIO10 PGTW 291800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN \r\nOCEAN/291800Z-301800ZSEP2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n20.2N 70.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 71.2E, APPROXIMATELY 259 NM \r\nEAST-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291233Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN \r\nEXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION \r\nDISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. A RECENT 291500Z OBSERVATION FROM \r\nPORBANDAR, INDIA SHOWS 10 KNOT WINDS FROM THE WEST AND SLP OF 1001 MB. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT \r\nWITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, GOOD \r\nPOLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) \r\nOF 28-29 C. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS OVERLAND AND WEAK DUE TO FRICTIONAL \r\nEFFECTS. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH \r\nECMWF BEING THE SOLE OUTLIER, PORTRAYING 90A TO MAINTAIN ITS POSITION \r\nOVER LAND AS IT TRACKS NORTHWEST TOWARD KARACHI, PAKISTAN OVER THE \r\nNEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 \r\nTO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 \r\nMB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"