"ABIO10 PGTW 300600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN \r\nOCEAN REISSUED/300600ZSEP2025-010600ZOCT2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n20.2N 70.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 70.0E, APPROXIMATELY 183 NM \r\nEAST-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH \r\nPERSISTENT CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO \r\nMODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, GOOD POLEWARD \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 \r\nC. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS OVERLAND AND WEAK DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. \r\nDETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF \r\nBEING THE SOLE OUTLIER, PORTRAYING 90A TO MAINTAIN ITS POSITION \r\nOVER LAND AS IT TRACKS NORTHWEST TOWARD KARACHI, PAKISTAN OVER THE \r\nNEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 \r\nTO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 \r\nMB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.6N \r\n89.6E, APPROXIMATELY 298 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR. ANIMATED \r\nMULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION WITH \r\nAN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE MSI ALSO REVEALS BROAD \r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING WITHIN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITH \r\nSTRONG EASTERLIES ALOFT. A 090930Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS STRONG WINDS (20-\r\n25 KTS) TO THE WEST OF THE BROAD CONVECTION CENTER. ANALYSIS REVEALS \r\nFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C). \r\nGLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT WITH A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD \r\nTRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH \r\nDEVELOPMENT WHILE ECMWF SHOWS THE SYSTEM STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE. \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B. (2).//"