"ABIO10 PGTW 301800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN \r\nOCEAN/301800ZSEP2025-011800ZOCT2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301752ZSEP2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n23.5N 70.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 68.9E, APPROXIMATELY 199 NM \r\nSOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, \r\nWITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 301549Z ASCAT-B PASS \r\nSHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER \r\nTHE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. A 301327Z WSFM 89 GHZ \r\nMICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SHALLOW \r\nBANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 5-10 KNOTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL EQUATORWARD \r\nOUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 KNOTS. \r\nDETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON THE SYSTEM HAVING A \r\nGENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK BUT DISAGREE ON THE INTENSITY OF THE \r\nSYSTEM AS WELL AS THE TIMELINE OF FORMATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL \r\nPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 \r\nHOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n15.6N 89.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 86.7E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM \r\nSOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\nREVEALS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH IMPROVED \r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING. A 301546Z ASCAT-B PASS INDICATES A SWATH OF 35 \r\nKNOT NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 5-10 KNOTS, EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, \r\nAND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 C. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON \r\nTHE SYSTEM HAVING A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY \r\nDEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 \r\nHOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 301800) FOR FURTHER \r\nDETAILS.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"