"ABIO10 PGTW 151800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/151800Z-\r\n161800ZAUG2024//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151751ZAUG2024//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n4.0S 74.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2S 73.9E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM NORTH-\r\nNORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND \r\n151132Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF FLARING \r\nCONVECTION, WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH \r\nPERSISTENT CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN AREA THAT IS \r\nMARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH, WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES, HIGH (30-40 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD \r\nOUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL \r\nCONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER \r\nTHE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 \r\nTO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. \r\nTHE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW\r\n151800) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS."