"ABIO10 PGTW 080800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN \r\nREISSUED/080800Z-081800ZDEC2024//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n10.7S 74.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 68.8E, APPROXIMATELY 226 NM \r\nSOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\nAND A 080253Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF FLARING \r\nCONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST PARTIALLY OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST \r\n92S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT \r\nWITH WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD \r\nOUTFLOW ALOFT COUNTERBALANCED BY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KTS). \r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92S WILL TRACK \r\nWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n8.6S 102.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5S 100.2E, APPROXIMATELY 299 NM \r\nNORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC, WHICH HAS REMAINED NEARLY QUASI-\r\nSTATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS, WITH PERSISTENT \r\nCONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE WEST DUE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY \r\nFLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR \r\nFURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C \r\nOFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20-25 KTS AND WEAK \r\nUPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BACKED \r\nOFF ON DEVELOPMENT CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS, WITH THE \r\nGFS, ECMWF AND NAVGEM NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY TO \r\nDEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS MIXED, WITH THE \r\nGEFS SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEVELOPMENT, WHILE THE ECENS IS A \r\nBIT MORE AGGRESSIVE, HAVING SEVERAL MEMBERS WHICH INCREASE THE SYSTEM \r\nTO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REMAIN \r\nVERY SLOW-MOVING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT WILL EVENTUALLY HEAD \r\nTOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND INTERACT WITH INVEST 93S IN THE LONG \r\nTERM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO\r\nMEDIUM.//"