"ABIO10 PGTW 081800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN \r\nOCEAN/081800Z-091800ZDEC2024//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n10.8S 68.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 67.9E, APPROXIMATELY 824 NM \r\nNORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY DEPICTS INVEST 92S WITH A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLCC AND \r\nPERSISTENT CONVECTION BEING SHEARED FROM THE EAST. A 081428Z GMI 89GHZ \r\nMICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO BACKS THE EIR DEPICTION, BUT REVEALS PERSISTENT \r\nCONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A FULLY-EXPOSED LLCC. 92S IS IN A \r\nMARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD \r\nDUAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29C \r\nOFFSET BY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 25-30 KT. HOWEVER, CIMSS \r\nATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTOR (AMV) ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS \r\nARE SPLITTING TO THE EAST OF 92S, AND LOCALIZED SHEAR NEAR THE CENTER \r\nIS LIKELY LOWER THAN THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. LASTLY, GLOBAL \r\nDETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92S WILL CONTINUE TO \r\nCONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24HRS, WITH GFS AND ECMWF BOTH FORECASTING \r\n92S TO BRIEFLY REACH WARNING THRESHOLD BY 48 HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL \r\nPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nREMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n8.5S 100.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 99.4E, APPROXIMATELY 202 NM \r\nNORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT INVEST 91S WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH \r\nPERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. A 081413Z ASCAT \r\nMETOP-B 50 KM PARTIAL PASS REVEALS 15-20 KT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF \r\nTHE LLCC. AS FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS, 91S IS IN A MARGINAL \r\nENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES \r\nOF 29-30C OFFSET BY WEAK POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND HIGH \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 25-30 KT. LASTLY, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS \r\nCONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM REMAINING NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY, WHILE \r\nBACKING OFF ON THE DEVELOPMENT ODDS FOR 91S. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC \r\nGUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE CIRCULATION IS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE \r\nCONTINUES TO SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE PROBABILITIES FOR \r\nDEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 \r\nKNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"