"ABIO10 PGTW 090100\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN \r\nREISSUED/090100Z-091800ZDEC2024//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090051ZDEC2024//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n10.9S 67.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 64.9E, APPROXIMATELY 675 NM \r\nNORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY DEPICTS INVEST 92S WITH A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLCC AND \r\nPERSISTENT CONVECTION BEING SHEARED FROM THE EAST, THOUGH THE LLCC HAS \r\nBEEN STEADILY MOVING CLOSER TO THE CONVECTIVE MASS. A 082041Z AMSR2 \r\n89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES \r\nWRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, WHICH REMAINS EAST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. \r\n92S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT \r\nWITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29C OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR OF 20-25 KT. HOWEVER, CIMSS ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTOR (AMV) \r\nANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SPLITTING TO THE EAST OF 92S, \r\nAND LOCALIZED SHEAR NEAR THE CENTER IS LIKELY LOWER THAN THE \r\nENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. LASTLY, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN \r\nAGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT \r\n24HRS. MESOSCALE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT 92S WILL QUICKLY \r\nINTENSIFY AND REACH WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 090100) \r\nFOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n8.5S 100.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1S 98.4E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM \r\nNORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT INVEST 91S WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH \r\nPERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. A 081413Z ASCAT \r\nMETOP-B 50 KM PARTIAL PASS REVEALS 15-20 KT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF \r\nTHE LLCC. AS FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS, 91S IS IN A MARGINAL \r\nENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES \r\nOF 29-30C OFFSET BY WEAK POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND HIGH \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 25-30 KT. LASTLY, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS \r\nCONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM REMAINING NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY, WHILE \r\nBACKING OFF ON THE DEVELOPMENT ODDS FOR 91S. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC \r\nGUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE CIRCULATION IS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE \r\nCONTINUES TO SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE PROBABILITIES FOR \r\nDEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 \r\nKNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.5S \r\n117.6E, APPROXIMATELY 397 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH. ANIMATED \r\nMULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INVEST 93S WITH A BROAD LOW \r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING, PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 082220Z \r\nSSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING \r\nALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH LOW-LEVEL \r\nBANDING FEATURES EVIDENT IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. \r\n93S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT \r\nWITH GOOD POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES OF 28-30C OFFSET BY A TIGHT GRADIENT OF 10-30 KT VERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR. LASTLY, GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT INVEST 93S WILL \r\nCONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH NAVGEM BEING THE \r\nMOST AGGRESSIVE, REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD BY 48 HOURS. AS FOR THE \r\nENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, GEFS AND ECENS ARE SPLIT WITH ECENS BEING THE MOST \r\nAGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO GEFS WHICH SHOWS ONLY VERY FEW MEMBERS \r\nFORECASTING DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED \r\nAT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR \r\n1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.\r\n      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO HIGH. \r\nADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(3).//"