"ABIO10 PGTW 091800 COR\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN \r\nREISSUED CORRECTED/091800Z-101800ZDEC2024//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090051ZDEC2024//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n8.5S 100.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 97.4E, APPROXIMATELY 107 NM \r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT INVEST 91S WITH A FULLY EXPOSED \r\nLLCC WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. A \r\n081413Z ASCAT METOP-B 50 KM PARTIAL PASS REVEALS 15-20 KT WINDS TO THE \r\nNORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC. AS FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS, 91S IS \r\nIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C OFFSET BY WEAK POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL \r\nOUTFLOW AND MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 25-30 KT. LASTLY, \r\nGLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM REMAINING \r\nNEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY, WHILE BACKING OFF ON THE DEVELOPMENT ODDS FOR \r\n91S. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE CIRCULATION IS \r\nUNLIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 \r\nHOURS, AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE \r\nPROBABILITIES FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE \r\nESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED \r\nTO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n10.9S 67.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 64.9E, APPROXIMATELY 675 NM \r\nNORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY DEPICTS INVEST 92S WITH A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLCC AND \r\nPERSISTENT CONVECTION BEING SHEARED FROM THE EAST, THOUGH THE LLCC HAS \r\nBEEN STEADILY MOVING CLOSER TO THE CONVECTIVE MASS. A 082041Z AMSR2 \r\n89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES \r\nWRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. 92S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT \r\nFOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL \r\nOUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29C OFFSET BY MODERATE \r\nTO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20-25 KTS. HOWEVER, CIMSS ATMOSPHERIC \r\nMOTION VECTOR (AMV) ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SPLITTING \r\nTO THE EAST OF 92S, AND LOCALIZED SHEAR NEAR THE CENTER IS LIKELY \r\nLOWER THAN THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. LASTLY, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC \r\nMODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE \r\nOVER THE NEXT 24HRS. MESOSCALE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT 92S \r\nWILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY AND REACH WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN THE NEXT 18 \r\nTO 24 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO \r\n28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. \r\nTHE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 090100) \r\nFOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n16.5S 117.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 115.7E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM \r\nNORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH.  ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A \r\nBROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION, WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, A 091038Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION, WITH FRAGMENTED \r\nFORMATIVE BANDING SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 93S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR \r\nFURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD \r\nEQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW  (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL GENERALLY \r\nTRACK SOUTHWEST WARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE \r\nWINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (4) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n10.2S 129.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 129.7E, APPROXIMATELY 211 NM \r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS \r\nA BROAD AND WEAKLY DEFINED ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION, WITH FLARING \r\nCONVECTION BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AROUND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER \r\n(LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 94S IS IN A \r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (30-31C) SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW VERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE EXPECTING THE SYSTEM TO \r\nGENERALLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM \r\nCONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED \r\nAT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR \r\n1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (5) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1).\r\n4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED MISSING INVEST IN PARA\r\n2.B.(1)."