"ABIO10 PGTW 092130\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN \r\nREISSUED/092130Z-101800ZDEC2024//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091951ZDEC2024//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n11.0S 62.4E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE \r\nPARA. 2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n8.5S 100.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 97.4E, APPROXIMATELY 107 NM \r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT INVEST 91S WITH A FULLY EXPOSED \r\nLLCC WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. A \r\n081413Z ASCAT METOP-B 50 KM PARTIAL PASS REVEALS 15-20 KT WINDS TO THE \r\nNORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC. AS FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS, 91S IS \r\nIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C OFFSET BY WEAK POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL \r\nOUTFLOW AND MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 25-30 KT. LASTLY, \r\nGLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM REMAINING \r\nNEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY, WHILE BACKING OFF ON THE DEVELOPMENT ODDS FOR \r\n91S. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE CIRCULATION IS \r\nUNLIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 \r\nHOURS, AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE \r\nPROBABILITIES FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE \r\nESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED \r\nTO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n16.5S 117.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 115.7E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM \r\nNORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A \r\nBROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION, WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, A 091038Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION, WITH FRAGMENTED \r\nFORMATIVE BANDING SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 93S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR \r\nFURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD \r\nEQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW  (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL GENERALLY \r\nTRACK SOUTHWEST WARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE \r\nWINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (4) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n10.2S 129.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 129.7E, APPROXIMATELY 211 NM \r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS \r\nA BROAD AND WEAKLY DEFINED ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION, WITH FLARING \r\nCONVECTION BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AROUND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER \r\n(LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 94S IS IN A \r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (30-31C) SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW VERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE EXPECTING THE SYSTEM TO \r\nGENERALLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM \r\nCONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED \r\nAT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR \r\n1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (5) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO WARNING \r\nSTATUS.//"