"ABPW10 PGTW 170200\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/170200Z-170600ZSEP2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161951ZSEP2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161951ZSEP2025//\r\nNARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nFORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n15.0N 137.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 136.6E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM \r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND \r\nA RECENT 162205Z F16 SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING, \r\nOBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH BROAD CONVECTIVE BANDING \r\nAND PERSISTENT, FLARING CONVECTION. A RECENT 162051Z SCATTEROMETER \r\nPASS REVEALS 15-20 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION.ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 5-10 KNOTS, MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL UPPER-LEVEL \r\nOUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 30 TO 31 DEGREES \r\nCELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION AND \r\nINTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO \r\n23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. \r\nTHE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. SEE REF A (WTPN21 \r\nPHNC 161230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 22.9N \r\n167.1E, APPROXIMATELY 221 NM NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED \r\nMULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED, LOWER \r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION, PRIMARILY IN THE \r\nSOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A RECENT 162209Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SHARP TROUGH \r\nWITH A SWATH OF WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST OF THE \r\nTROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR \r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD \r\nPOLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) \r\nOF 29-30 C. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD \r\nTRACK, BUT ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT, WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING MORE \r\nINTENSIFICATION THAN THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND GFS. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1013 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 \r\nHOURS IS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED \r\nAREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM AND ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2).//"