"ABPW10 PGTW 180200\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/180200Z-180600ZSEP2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171951ZSEP2025//\r\nREF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180152ZSEP2025//\r\nNARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AND REF B IS A TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n15.7N 134.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 134.1E, APPROXIMATELY 421 NM \r\nNORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\n(MSI) DEPICTS PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) \r\nWITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF 90W. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT \r\nWITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WITH WARM SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES (30-31 C) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL \r\nDETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL CONTINUE ON A \r\nNORTH NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH GFS SHOWING TO BE MORE INTENSE OVER THE \r\nNEXT 48 HOURS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS 90W ON A NORTH NORTHWEST \r\nTRACK AS WELL WITH BOTH IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON AN INTENSITY OVER THE \r\nNEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO \r\n23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. \r\nTHE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n23.4N 165.9E  IS NOW LOCATED 23.5N 164.3E APPROXIMATELY 282 NM NORTH \r\nNORTHWEST OF WAKE.ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\n(MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), \r\nWITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST. A 172240Z \r\nASCAT IMAGE REVEALS 20-25 KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF 91W. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR \r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WITH WARM SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. \r\nGLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF SHOWING \r\nSUPPORT FOR A HIGHER INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE NO OTHER \r\nDETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW SUPPORT. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS 91W \r\nONLY PICKING UP ON ECENS WITH A HIGHER INTENSITY OVER GEFS. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nIS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 180200) FOR FURTHER \r\nDETAILS.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2) TO \r\nHIGH.//"