"ABPW10 PGTW 180600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/180600Z-190600ZSEP2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180151ZSEP2025//\r\nREF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180551ZSEP2025//\r\nREF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180152ZSEP2025//\r\nNARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REFS B AND C ARE TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n15.3N 134.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 133.4E, APPROXIMATELY 581 NM \r\nEAST-NORTHEAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES.  ANIMATED ENHANCED \r\nMULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, EXPOSED \r\nLOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO \r\nTHE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. A 180113Z METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS 20-25 \r\nKNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR \r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL CONTINUE IN A WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH GFS SHOWING THE STRONGEST DEVELOPMENT IN THE \r\nNEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO \r\n23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. \r\nTHE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN22 PGTW \r\n180600) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n23.4N 165.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 164.3E, APPROXIMATELY 282 NM \r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION \r\nCENTER (LLCC), WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE SOUTH \r\nSOUTHEAST. A 172240Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS 20-25 KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST \r\nAND NORTHEAST OF 91W. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES \r\nFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-\r\n15 KTS), WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C) AND GOOD \r\nEQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOT IN \r\nAGREEMENT WITH ECMWF SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A HIGHER INTENSITY OVER THE \r\nNEXT 48 HOURS WHILE NO OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW SUPPORT. GLOBAL \r\nENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS 91W ONLY PICKING UP ON ECENS WITH A HIGHER \r\nINTENSITY OVER GEFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT \r\n23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR \r\n1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPN21 PGTW \r\n180200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"