"ABIO10 PGTW 211800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN \r\nOCEAN/211800Z-221800ZOCT2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210751ZOCT2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.7N \r\n67.8E, APPROXIMATELY 684 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED \r\nENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 211654Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS \r\nDEPICT A BROAD AND POORLY ORGANIZED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN \r\nFLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH WARM (28-29 C) \r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT \r\nOFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. \r\nGLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW A VERY SLOW AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT \r\nOVER TIME, WITH THE NAVGEM SOLUTION THE MOST DISTINCT AND FASTEST. \r\nENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING A GRADUAL BUILD IN \r\nTHE WIND SPEED UP TO 35 KTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nIS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n4.6S 97.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.3S 94.5E, APPROXIMATELY 377 NM NORTH-\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY \r\n(EIR) AND A 211508Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS DEPICT A BROAD AND SLOWLY \r\nCONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE \r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR \r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR \r\n(15-20 KTS), RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 \r\nC). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE A TRACEABLE CIRCULATION BUT ARE \r\nNOT SHOWING MUCH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM \r\nTRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER, THE NUMBER OF GEFS AND EC-ENS \r\nENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS REACHING WARNING THRESHOLDS WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 \r\nDAYS HAS INCREASED A BIT IN RECENT RUNS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE \r\nWINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"