"ABIO10 PGTW 231800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN \r\nOCEAN/231800Z-241800ZOCT2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230751ZOCT2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n10.7N 70.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 71.0E, APPROXIMATELY 324 NM \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OF COCHIN. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) \r\nDEPICTS A BROAD DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION \r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT \r\nWITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS), DIFFLUENT \r\nOUTFLOW, AND WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C). GLOBAL MODELS \r\nDEPICT A BROAD CIRCULATION MOVING WITH A NORTHWARD TRACK IN THE \r\nARABIAN SEA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE \r\nWINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n9.5S 85.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 84.4E, APPROXIMATELY 719 NM EAST-\r\nSOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) \r\nDEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF LINEAR, CYCLING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM \r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF \r\nIN THE DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 95S, WITH PRIMARILY NAVGEM SHOWING A \r\nBROAD CIRCULATION, THEN FALLING OFF AFTER TAU 48. IT IS SUSPECTED \r\nTHAT MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nSURGE FLOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE, WHICH IS INDUCED BY THE PRESSURE \r\nGRADIENT, AND GENERAL TROUGHING IN THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE A \r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK NEAR DIEGO GARCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE \r\nWINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED \r\nTO LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"