"ABIO10 PGTW 241000\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN \r\nREISSUED/241000Z-241800ZOCT2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240751ZOCT2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n10.7N 70.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 71.0EE, APPROXIMATELY 324 NM \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OF COCHIN. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) \r\nDEPICTS A BROAD DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION \r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT \r\nWITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS), DIFFLUENT \r\nOUTFLOW, AND WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C). GLOBAL MODELS \r\nDEPICT A BROAD CIRCULATION MOVING WITH A NORTHWARD TRACK IN THE \r\nARABIAN SEA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE \r\nWINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.8N \r\n89.5E, APPROXIMATELY 562 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. \r\nMULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC EMBEDDED \r\nWITHIN A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN INDIA TO \r\nTHE ANDAMAN ISLAND. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE UP NEAR THE LLCC \r\nBUT IS BEING SHEARED BY THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FORMATION WITH MODERATE \r\nWESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR \r\nOF 5-15 KTS, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 C. GLOBAL \r\nMODELS SHOW 94B CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE TRACKING \r\nGENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD, THOUGH ECENS DEPICTS IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING \r\nUNLIKE GEFS OR THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS, WHICH SHOW A MUCH SLOWER \r\nRATE OF INTENSIFICATION AND AN OVERALL WEAKER SYSTEM. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 \r\nHOURS IS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n9.5S 85.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 84.4E, APPROXIMATELY 719 NM EAST-\r\nSOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) \r\nDEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF LINEAR, CYCLING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM \r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF IN \r\nTHE DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 95S, WITH PRIMARILY NAVGEM SHOWING A BROAD \r\nCIRCULATION, THEN FALLING OFF AFTER TAU 48. IT IS SUSPECTED THAT \r\nMODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE ENVIRONMENTAL SURGE \r\nFLOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE, WHICH IS INDUCED BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, \r\nAND GENERAL TROUGHING IN THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE A WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK NEAR DIEGO GARCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE \r\nWINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED \r\nTO LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2)//"