"ABIO10 PGTW 241800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN \r\nOCEAN/241800Z-251800ZOCT2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240751ZOCT2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n11.6N 71.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 71.5E, APPROXIMATELY 136 NM \r\nSOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) \r\nDEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS \r\nREVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO \r\nUNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS), MODERATE POLEWARD AND \r\nEQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C). GLOBAL \r\nDETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DEPICT A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH \r\nGRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT \r\n23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR \r\n1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n10.8N 89.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 89.0E, APPROXIMATELY 532 NM \r\nEAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\n(EIR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC EMBEDDED WITHIN A TROUGH THAT \r\nEXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN INDIA TO THE ANDAMAN ISLAND \r\nCHAIN. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE NEAR THE LLCC BUT IS SHEARED BY \r\nTHE PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS \r\nREVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE WESTWARD \r\nAND EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (5-15 KTS ) VERTICAL WIND \r\nSHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 C. GLOBAL \r\nDETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW 94B CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT \r\n24-48 HOURS BEFORE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL \r\nPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nREMAINS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n9.8S 84.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7S 79.6E, APPROXIMATELY 431 NM EAST \r\nOF DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A \r\nBROAD AREA OF TROUGHING WITH FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS), POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM \r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY \r\nINDICATED A LOWER LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 95S THROUGH THE \r\nLAST SEVERAL RUNS, INSTEAD REVEALING AN ASYMMETRIC TROUGH WITH \r\nENHANCED WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE DISTURBANCE IS \r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS DIEGO GARCIA. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nREMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"