"ABIO10 PGTW 291800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/291800Z-\r\n301800ZOCT2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n18.0N 68.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 67.8E, APPROXIMATELY 309 NM WEST-\r\nSOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) \r\nDEPICTS A BROAD, POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH \r\nFLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATELY FAVORABLE \r\nCONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 \r\nKTS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES \r\n(27-28 C). ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT, WITH ECENS SHOWING A \r\nSTRONGER SIGNAL FOR DEVELOPMENT ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AND \r\nINCREASED WINDS WHILE GEFS CAPTURES LESS CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO TRACK \r\nAND WEAKER WINDS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT REVEALING A \r\nBROAD AND POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION THAT TRANSITS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.  \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM \r\nSEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nREMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"