"ABIO10 PGTW 081800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/081800Z-\r\n091800ZAPR2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n12.4N 85.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 85.6E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM EAST \r\nOF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) \r\nAND A HIMAWARI-9 IR IMAGE AT 081650Z DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST. THE RADIUS OF \r\nMAXIMUM WINDS IS ANALYZED TO BE APPROXIMATELY 100 NM, SIMILAR TO A \r\nMONSOON DEPRESSION IN SIZE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 92B IS \r\nIN A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG (25-\r\n30 KTS) VWS OFFSET BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL \r\nALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IN TERMS OF MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MOVING \r\nFORWARD, TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFYING SLOWLY BEFORE REACHING \r\nCOASTAL MYANMAR. HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NO \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. 92B IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD \r\nOVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT \r\n23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 \r\nMB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"