"ABIO10 PGTW 090000\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN \r\nREISSUED/090000Z-091800ZAPR2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n12.9N 85.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 85.5E, APPROXIMATELY 306 NM EAST \r\nOF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)  \r\nDEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED \r\nTO THE EAST. THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS ANALYZED TO BE \r\nAPPROXIMATELY 100 NM, SIMILAR TO A MONSOON DEPRESSION IN SIZE. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 92B IS IN A MARGINALLY \r\nUNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG (25-30 KTS) \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW \r\nCHANNEL ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IN TERMS OF \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE \r\nMOVING FORWARD, TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFYING SLOWLY BEFORE \r\nREACHING COASTAL MYANMAR. HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO \r\nNO DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. 92B IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY \r\nNORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE \r\nESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED \r\nTO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.7S \r\n134.7E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN. AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED \r\nENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 082050Z SSMIS F17 \r\n91GHZ DEPICT A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH \r\nFLARING CONVECTION DISLOCATED TO THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS \r\nINDICATES THAT 96P IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR \r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WEAK UPPER \r\nLEVEL RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. \r\nGLOBAL ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD \r\nAGREEMENT WITH A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 \r\nTO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 \r\nMB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL \r\nPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nIS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//"