"ABIO10 PGTW 091200\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN \r\nREISSUED/091200Z-091800ZAPR2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n12.9N 85.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 85.1E, APPROXIMATELY 224 NM \r\nSOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (EIR) AND A 090720Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A \r\nWEAKLY-DEFINED LLCC WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST. A \r\n090647Z OSCAT PASS REVEALS A RELATIVELY SYMMETRICAL BUT WEAK \r\nCIRCULATION WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ISOLATED TO THE EASTERN \r\nPERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY \r\nUNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND \r\nMODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN \r\nAGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 92B WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY AS A \r\nWEAK CIRCULATION WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. \r\nHOWEVER, THE ECENS ENSEMBLE MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW A HANDFUL OF \r\nMEMBERS THAT INTENSIFY AS THE CIRCULATION APPROACHES THE COAST OF \r\nMYANMAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 \r\nKNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n8.7S 134.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10S 132.8E, APPROXIMATELY 164 NM \r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE \r\nSOUTHEAST OF A DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A \r\n090928Z SSMIS F17 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED WEAK LOW-LEVEL \r\nBANDING WITHIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. SURFACE \r\nOBSERVATIONS AT MCCLUER ISLAND ARE REPORTING AROUND 20 KTS FROM THE \r\nEAST-SOUTHEAST.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 96P IS IN A \r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR, WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD UPPER-\r\nLEVEL OUTFLOW. THE GFS SHOWS A QUICK INTENSIFICATION TREND, ATTAINING \r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN 48 HOURS WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE \r\nGRADUAL TREND. MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, NEAR \r\nTHE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS.  MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nIS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO \r\nMEDIUM.//"