"ABPW10 PGTW 190600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/190600Z-200600ZFEB2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n16.3S 177.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 176.3W, APPROXIMATELY 338 NM \r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\n(MSI) AND A 190132Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS A BROAD AREA \r\nOF POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH CYCLING CONVECTION NORTHWEST AND \r\nEAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE ASSESSED LLCC. THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE \r\nZONE, EXTENDING FROM THE CORAL SEA TO FRENCH POLYNESIA, IS AIDING IN \r\nTHE DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 92P. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT \r\nINVEST 92P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE \r\nTO VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15 \r\nTO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL \r\nMODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW BUT STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF \r\nINVEST 92P. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS \r\nWELL WITH THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK \r\nOF INVEST 92P OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE \r\nWINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n17.2S 168.8W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7S 166.6W, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM \r\nSOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\n(MSI) DEPICTS A WAVE LIKE FEATURE WITH A POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION \r\nRIDING LONG THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). A 190042Z \r\nASCAT METOP-B SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD OF \r\n20-25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION AND 10-15 KNOTS TO \r\nTHE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 98P IS IN A \r\nMARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM \r\n(28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR, HOWEVER, IS OFFSET BY CONVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS \r\nARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 98P. \r\nTHE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98P WILL \r\nCONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS SHOWING \r\nNO SIGNS OF POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS \r\nARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"