"ABPW10 PGTW 082000\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/082000Z-090600ZNOV2024//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081351ZNOV2024//\r\nREF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080851ZNOV2024//\r\nNARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nFORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n11.3N 165.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 161.8E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM \r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST OF ULEJONG. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) \r\nWITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING IN THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY AND NEAR \r\nTHE CENTER OF THE LLC. EARLIER ASCAT DATA SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER IS \r\nMORE OF A CUSP FEATURE THAN A TRUE CIRCULATION CENTER, HOWEVER THE \r\nLATEST ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNS OF A CIRCULATION CENTER \r\nEMERGING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 93W IS IN A FAVORABLE \r\nENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR, VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND \r\nGOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MODELS \r\nARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER ON THE CONSOLIDATION OF INVEST 93W \r\nAND GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. \r\nDETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL CONTINUE \r\nTO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS WELL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL \r\nPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nREMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 080900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n14.5N 139.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 134.8E, APPROXIMATELY 781 NM \r\nEAST-SOUTHEAST OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL INFRARED \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 080949Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE \r\nDEPICT AN ORGANIZING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN AREA \r\nOF FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING AND A PARTIAL ASCAT-B PASS INDICATES A \r\nMORE SYMMETRICAL CIRCULATION. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN \r\nTHE AREA ARE DEFINED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AROUND THE AREA OF \r\nCONVECTION (92W), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) AND LOW \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE \r\nINDICATING GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND A STABLE \r\nWESTERLY TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO \r\n23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. \r\nTHE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.\r\n      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n3.0N 156.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 152.9E, APPROXIMATELY 156 NM \r\nSOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AREA OF DENSE, PERSISTENT \r\nCONVECTION BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES \r\n94W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE \r\n(15-20 KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (30-31C) \r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE THAT \r\n94W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK IN A NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION WITH STEADY \r\nINTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE \r\nWINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) TO \r\nMEDIUM.//"