{"ObservationDate":"2024-11-08T20:00:00","Latitude":14.7,"Longitude":134.8,"Windspeed":23.0,"Pressure":1006.0,"Identifier":"INVEST 92W","PotentialStatus":"MEDIUM","OriginalBulletin":["ABPW10 PGTW 082000","MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//","SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH ","PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/082000Z-090600ZNOV2024//","REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081351ZNOV2024//","REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080851ZNOV2024//","NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE ","FORMATION ALERT.//","RMKS/","   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:","      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR ","11.3N 165.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 161.8E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM ","NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ULEJONG. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE ","IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ","WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING IN THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY AND NEAR ","THE CENTER OF THE LLC. EARLIER ASCAT DATA SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER IS ","MORE OF A CUSP FEATURE THAN A TRUE CIRCULATION CENTER, HOWEVER THE ","LATEST ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNS OF A CIRCULATION CENTER ","EMERGING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 93W IS IN A FAVORABLE ","ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) ","VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND ","GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MODELS ","ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER ON THE CONSOLIDATION OF INVEST 93W ","AND GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ","DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL CONTINUE ","TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS WELL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED ","SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL ","PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE ","DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ","REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 080900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.","      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR ","14.5N 139.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 134.8E, APPROXIMATELY 781 NM ","EAST-SOUTHEAST OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL INFRARED ","SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 080949Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ","DEPICT AN ORGANIZING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN AREA ","OF FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING AND A PARTIAL ASCAT-B PASS INDICATES A ","MORE SYMMETRICAL CIRCULATION. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN ","THE AREA ARE DEFINED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AROUND THE AREA OF ","CONVECTION (92W), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) AND LOW ","VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ","INDICATING GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND A STABLE ","WESTERLY TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO ","23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. ","THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE ","WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.","      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR ","3.0N 156.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 152.9E, APPROXIMATELY 156 NM ","SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL INFRARED SATELLITE ","IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AREA OF DENSE, PERSISTENT ","CONVECTION BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES ","94W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE ","(15-20 KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (30-31C) ","SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE THAT ","94W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK IN A NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION WITH STEADY ","INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE ","WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ","ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ","SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.","      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.","   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.","   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.","   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.","3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) TO ","MEDIUM.//"]}