"ABPW10 PGTW 220600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/220600Z-230600ZJAN2026//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220151ZJAN2026//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n7.9N 145.1E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n13.6S 148.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 151.1E, APPROXIMATELY 65 NM \r\nEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AND BROAD LOW LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION \r\nDEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE \r\nAREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-40 KNOTS), WARM \r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. \r\nGLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT ALIGNED WITH \r\nCONSOLIDATION OR INTENSIFICATION TIMELINE, WITH GFS SHOWING SLOW \r\nINTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHEREAS ECMWF HAS 90P \r\nDISSIPATING BY TAU 24. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ILLUSTRATE A SLIGHTLY \r\nDIFFERENT SCENARIO, WITH BOTH GEFS AND ECENS CHARACTERIZING GRADUAL \r\nINTENSIFICATION TOWARD 35 KTS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nREMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"