"ABIO10 PGTW 211800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN \r\nOCEAN/211800Z-221800ZMAY2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n16.2N 72.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 71.9E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM \r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\nAND A 210830Z ATMS 88GHZ IMAGE REVEALS LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO \r\nCONSOLIDATE WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTION FLARING UP OVER THE CENTER OF \r\nTHE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR \r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND \r\nSHEAR, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND VERY WARM (28-30C) SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN \r\nFAIR AGREEMENT THAT 93A WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY, HOWEVER \r\nECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS, REACHING TC \r\nCRITERIA LATER THAN OTHER MODELS DO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE \r\nESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO \r\nBE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"