"ABIO10 PGTW 211800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN \r\nOCEAN/211800Z-221800ZMAY2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n16.2N 72.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 71.9E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM \r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\nAND A 210830Z ATMS 88GHZ IMAGE REVEALS LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO \r\nCONSOLIDATE WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTION FLARING UP OVER THE CENTER OF \r\nTHE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR \r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND \r\nSHEAR, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND VERY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN FAIR \r\nAGREEMENT THAT 93A WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY, HOWEVER ECMWF \r\nIS LESS AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEAR-TERM, REACHING TC CRITERIA LATER THAN \r\nOTHER MODELS DO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO \r\n25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. \r\nTHE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"