"ABIO10 PGTW 221800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN \r\nOCEAN/221800Z-231800ZMAY2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n16.4N 71.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 72.5E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM \r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY AND A 221257Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS AN AREA OF \r\nDISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A POORLY \r\nDEFINED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR \r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, \r\nMODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC HAVE BACKED OFF DEVELOPMENT \r\nWITH THIS RUN COMPARED TO THE LAST RUN, AS THE MODEL PACKAGE HAS \r\nSHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO, OR EVEN MOVING IT INLAND. \r\nTHE GEFS AND ECEPS ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO DEPICTING A GENERAL SHIFT \r\nEASTWARD, WITH INCREASING MEMBERS INDICATING A LANDFALL IN THE NEAR-\r\nTERM, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO RETURN OVER WATER IN THE \r\nMEDIUM-RANGE. WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE MOVING THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO \r\nSHORE OR INLAND, THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING IN THE \r\nSHORT-TERM IS LOWERING BUT STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nREMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"