"ABIO10 PGTW 231800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN \r\nOCEAN/231800Z-241800ZMAY2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n16.4N 71.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 73.5E, APPROXIMATELY 128 NM NORTH-\r\nNORTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY AND A 231242Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS AN AREA OF \r\nDISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A POORLY \r\nDEFINED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL FAVORABLE \r\nCONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR, MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS MAINTAIN A TREND LENDING TO A \r\nDECREASED PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT, AS THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE \r\nSYSTEM MORE OVER LAND. THE GEFS AND ECEPS ENSEMBLES HAVE ALSO DEPICTED A \r\nSHIFT EASTWARD, WITH SOME MEMBERS INDICATING A MOVE IN THE SHORT-TERM, \r\nWITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO RETURN OVER WATER IN THE SHORT-\r\nRANGE AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD. WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE MOVING THE SYSTEM \r\nCLOSER TO SHORE, THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING IN THE SHORT-\r\nTERM CONTINUES TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nREMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"