"ABPW10 PGTW 130600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZMAR2024//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n11.4S 141.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4S 141.9E, APPROXIMATELY 76 NM NORTH \r\nOF WEIPA. ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD \r\nWEAKLY DEFINED LLCC WITH FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LLCC. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 93P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR \r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM \r\n(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, COUPLED WITH ENHANCED EQUATORWARD \r\nOUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93P WILL WEAKEN AS IT \r\nMOVES TOWARDS HIGH VWS (30-40KT). NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE 93P ADVANCING \r\nEAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BRIEFLY TRACKING OVER LAND, THEN \r\nFURTHER DECAYING AS IT MAINTAINS AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK.  ENSEMBLES \r\nARE IN DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO INTENSITY WITH GEFS DISPLAYING \r\nMULTIPLE MEMBERS INTENSIFYING THE CIRCULATION WHEREAS ECENS MEMBERS ARE \r\nON A SIMILAR TRACK BUT DO NOT REACH TC INTENSITY IN RECENT MODEL RUNS.   \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM \r\nSEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS \r\nLOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS."