"ABPW10 PGTW 110600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/110600Z-120600ZMAY2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/102221ZMAY2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.8N \r\n138.0E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GOVE AIRPORT. ANIMATED \r\nMULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 101815Z SSMIS 91 GHZ \r\nMICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER \r\n(LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN \r\nPERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 93P IS \r\nIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG \r\nPOLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM \r\n(28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN \r\nPOOR AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF DEPICTING A SLOW SOUTHWARD TRACK AND FURTHER \r\nINTENSIFICATION WHILE GFS DEPICTS A WESTWARD TRACK AND LITTLE \r\nDEVELOPMENT. THE WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT IS SHORT, DUE TO INCREASING \r\nDRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST AFTER TAU 24. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL \r\nPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nREMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 102230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.     \r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n10.9S 156.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6S 156.3E, APPROXIMATELY 228 NM \r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (EIR) DEPICT A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER \r\n(LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION CURRENTLY BEING SHEARED FROM THE \r\nSOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY \r\nFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. FURTHERMORE, \r\nMODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR \r\nENTRAINMENT ARE THE MAIN HINDRANCES AGAINST THE DEVELOPMENT OF 94P. \r\nGLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF \r\nCONVECTION WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT \r\n24 HOURS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH ECENS \r\nBEING MORE AGGRESSIVE OVERALL IN TERMS OF DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nREMAINS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n19.6S 171.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.8S 176.0E, APPROXIMATELY 148 NM \r\nNORTH OF NADA, FIJI. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A \r\nSUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL \r\nAND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION UNDER VERY STRONG \r\nWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (OVER 50 KTS) DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN \r\nUPPER-LEVEL JET MAX TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. CONVECTION IS BEING \r\nVIGOROUSLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 95P IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE \r\nENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL TRANSITION DUE TO THE HIGH VERTICAL WIND \r\nSHEAR AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE ENTIRE WESTERN \r\nPORTION OF THE SYSTEM, OFFSET BY WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A FAST SOUTHEASTWARD \r\nTRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AN INCREASINGLY ELONGATED WIND FIELD \r\nAND THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 33 TO 38 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. \r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//"