{"ObservationDate":"2025-05-10T22:30:00","Latitude":-8.3,"Longitude":137.3,"Windspeed":33.0,"Pressure":998.0,"Identifier":"INVEST 93P","PotentialStatus":"HIGH","OriginalBulletin":["ABPW10 PGTW 102230","MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//","SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH ","PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/102230Z-110600ZMAY2025//","REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/102221ZMAY2025//","AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//","RMKS/","   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.","   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.","   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:","      (1)THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR ","7.7S 138.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3S 137.3E, APPROXIMATELY 238NM NORTH ","OF GOVE AIRPORT. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A ","101815Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL ","CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER AND ","ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS ","INDICATES THAT 93P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT ","CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) ","VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ","NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF DEPICTING A ","SLOW SOUTHWARD TRACK AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WHILE GFS DEPCITS A ","WESTWARD TRACK AND LITTLE DEVELOPMENT. THE WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT IS ","SHORT, DUE TO INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST AFTER TAU ","24.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 ","KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE ","POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN ","THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 102230) ","FOR FURTH DETAILS.","      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR ","10.9S 156.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 156.9E, APPROXIMATELY 204 NM ","WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE ","IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ","(LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED FROM THE ","SOUTHWEST. A PARTIAL 101132Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED ","CIRCULATION WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS ISOLATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. ","ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ","CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL ","WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE ","POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR ","AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 94P WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AS ","IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ","AGREES ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH ECENS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON ","DEVELOPMENT THAN THE GEFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ","ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED ","TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT ","TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. SEE REF B () FOR ","FURTHER DETAILS.","      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.","   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:","      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR ","19.6S 171.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.6S 171.0E, APPROXIMATELY 342 NM ","WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) ","SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION UNDER VERY STRONG ","WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (OVER 50 KTS) DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN ","UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. CONVECTION IS BEING ","VIGOROUSLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. A ","101030Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEALED 35-40 KNOT WINDS CONFINED TO THE ","SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, DISPLACED ABOUT 100 NM SOUTH OF THE CENTER. ","ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 95P IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ","ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL TRANSITION DUE TO THE HIGH VERTICAL WIND ","SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE ENTIRE WESTERN ","PORTION OF THE SYSTEM, OFFSET BY WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE ","TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A FAST EASTWARD TRACK ","OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH AN INCREASINGLY ELONGATED WIND FIELD AND ","THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. MAXIMUM ","SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 33 TO 38 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA ","LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE ","DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ","IS LOW. SEE REF C () FOR FURTHER DETAILS.","      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.","3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO ","HIGH.//"]}