"ABIO10 PGTW 091330\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN \r\nREISSUED/091330Z-091800ZDEC2024//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090051ZDEC2024//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n16.5S 117.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 116.4E, APPROXIMATELY 426 NM \r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\nDEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION, WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW \r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, A 091038Z GMI 89GHZ \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION, WITH \r\nFRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LLCC. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 92S IS IN A FAVORABLE \r\nENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW  (10-15 KTS) \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST \r\n93S WILL GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHWEST WARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) A REGION OF TROUGHING (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.2S \r\n129.9E, APPROXIMATELY 159 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN. ENHANCED \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND WEAKLY DEFINED \r\nASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION, WITH FLARING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE \r\nAROUND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS \r\nREVEALS THAT INVEST 94S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER \r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD \r\nEQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS). \r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE EXPECTING THE SYSTEM TO GENERALLY TRACK \r\nSOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO \r\nINTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 \r\nKNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.\r\n      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n10.9S 67.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 64.9E, APPROXIMATELY 675 NM \r\nNORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY DEPICTS INVEST 92S WITH A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLCC AND \r\nPERSISTENT CONVECTION BEING SHEARED FROM THE EAST, THOUGH THE LLCC HAS \r\nBEEN STEADILY MOVING CLOSER TO THE CONVECTIVE MASS. A 082041Z AMSR2 \r\n89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES \r\nWRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, WHICH REMAINS EAST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. \r\n92S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT \r\nWITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29C OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR OF 20-25 KT. HOWEVER, CIMSS ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTOR (AMV) \r\nANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SPLITTING TO THE EAST OF 92S, \r\nAND LOCALIZED SHEAR NEAR THE CENTER IS LIKELY LOWER THAN THE \r\nENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. LASTLY, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN \r\nAGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT \r\n24HRS. MESOSCALE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT 92S WILL QUICKLY \r\nINTENSIFY AND REACH WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 090100) FOR FURTHER \r\nDETAILS.\r\n      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO\r\nMEDIUM. ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2).//"