"ABIO10 PGTW 091800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN \r\nOCEAN/091800Z-101800ZDEC2024//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090051ZDEC2024//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n10.2S 129.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 129.9E, APPROXIMATELY 159 NM \r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS \r\nA BROAD AND WEAKLY DEFINED ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION, WITH FLARING \r\nCONVECTION BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AROUND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER \r\n(LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 94S IS IN A \r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (30-31C) SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW VERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE EXPECTING THE SYSTEM TO \r\nGENERALLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM \r\nCONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED \r\nAT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR \r\n1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n16.5S 117.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 116.4E, APPROXIMATELY 426 NM \r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\nDEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION, WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW \r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, A 091038Z GMI 89GHZ \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION, WITH \r\nFRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LLCC. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 93S IS IN A FAVORABLE \r\nENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW  (10-15 KTS) \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST \r\n93S WILL GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHWEST WARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n10.9S 67.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 64.9E, APPROXIMATELY 675 NM \r\nNORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY DEPICTS INVEST 92S WITH A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLCC AND \r\nPERSISTENT CONVECTION BEING SHEARED FROM THE EAST, THOUGH THE LLCC HAS \r\nBEEN STEADILY MOVING CLOSER TO THE CONVECTIVE MASS. A 082041Z AMSR2 \r\n89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES \r\nWRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. 92S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT \r\nFOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL \r\nOUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29C OFFSET BY MODERATE \r\nTO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20-25 KTS. HOWEVER, CIMSS ATMOSPHERIC \r\nMOTION VECTOR (AMV) ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SPLITTING \r\nTO THE EAST OF 92S, AND LOCALIZED SHEAR NEAR THE CENTER IS LIKELY \r\nLOWER THAN THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. LASTLY, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC \r\nMODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE \r\nOVER THE NEXT 24HRS. MESOSCALE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT 92S \r\nWILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY AND REACH WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN THE NEXT 18 \r\nTO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 \r\nKNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 090100) FOR \r\nFURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"