"ABPW10 PGTW 020600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/020600Z-030600ZDEC2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020151ZDEC2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n13.3N 135.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 135.3E, APPROXIMATELY 316 NM \r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\n(EIR) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED CIRCULATION WITH SPARSE CONVECTION. \r\nFURTHERMORE, A 012340Z 25KM ASCAT-B IMAGE DEPICTS THE BROAD NATURE OF \r\n93W WITH 15-20 KNOT GRADIENT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT \r\nWITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES, AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPLYING THE SYSTEM WITH GOOD \r\nPOLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE \r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITH A SOUTHWESTWARD \r\nTURN OVER THE NEXT 36-72 HOURS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW THAT THE \r\nDISTURBANCE WILL INTENSIFY PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE \r\nNORTHEAST COLD SURGE EVENT NEAR THE PHILIPPINES NEAR TAU 72. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nREMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n16.2S 155.3W HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"