"ABPW10 PGTW 102230\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/102230Z-110600ZMAY2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/102221ZMAY2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1)THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n7.7S 138.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3S 137.3E, APPROXIMATELY 238NM NORTH \r\nOF GOVE AIRPORT. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A \r\n101815Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER AND \r\nALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS \r\nINDICATES THAT 93P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT \r\nCHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. \r\nNUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF DEPICTING A \r\nSLOW SOUTHWARD TRACK AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WHILE GFS DEPCITS A \r\nWESTWARD TRACK AND LITTLE DEVELOPMENT. THE WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT IS \r\nSHORT, DUE TO INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST AFTER TAU \r\n24.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 \r\nKNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 102230) \r\nFOR FURTH DETAILS.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n10.9S 156.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 156.9E, APPROXIMATELY 204 NM \r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER \r\n(LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED FROM THE \r\nSOUTHWEST. A PARTIAL 101132Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED \r\nCIRCULATION WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS ISOLATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE \r\nCONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE \r\nPOLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR \r\nAGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 94P WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AS \r\nIT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE \r\nAGREES ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH ECENS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON \r\nDEVELOPMENT THAN THE GEFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE \r\nESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED \r\nTO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. SEE REF B () FOR \r\nFURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n19.6S 171.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.6S 171.0E, APPROXIMATELY 342 NM \r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION UNDER VERY STRONG \r\nWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (OVER 50 KTS) DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN \r\nUPPER-LEVEL JET MAX TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. CONVECTION IS BEING \r\nVIGOROUSLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. A \r\n101030Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEALED 35-40 KNOT WINDS CONFINED TO THE \r\nSOUTHERN PERIPHERY, DISPLACED ABOUT 100 NM SOUTH OF THE CENTER. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 95P IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE \r\nENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL TRANSITION DUE TO THE HIGH VERTICAL WIND \r\nSHEAR AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE ENTIRE WESTERN \r\nPORTION OF THE SYSTEM, OFFSET BY WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A FAST EASTWARD TRACK \r\nOVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH AN INCREASINGLY ELONGATED WIND FIELD AND \r\nTHE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 33 TO 38 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nIS LOW. SEE REF C () FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO \r\nHIGH.//"