"ABPW10 PGTW 120600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/120600Z-130600ZMAY2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120151ZMAY2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n10.4S 156.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 156.1E, APPROXIMATELY 238 NM \r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (EIR) DEPICT A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER \r\n(LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION CURRENTLY BEING SHEARED FROM THE \r\nSOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY \r\nFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY MODERATE \r\nTO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM \r\nTHE SOUTHWEST. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT \r\nTHE AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WITH \r\nSLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. ENSEMBLE MODELS ALSO AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD \r\nTRACK WHILE THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MORE UNCERTAIN, WITH ECENS BEING \r\nTHE MOST AGGRESSIVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE \r\nWINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n19.7S 176.3E HAS MERGED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS NO LONGER \r\nSUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE \r\nNEXT 24 HOURS.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//"