"ABPW10 PGTW 130600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZMAY2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n10.4S 155.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 156.4E, APPROXIMATELY 236 NM \r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 130251Z ATMS MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT AN \r\nELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FRAGMENTED OUTER CONVECTIVE \r\nBANDING. A 122247Z ASCAT-C PASS DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION, WITH A \r\nWEAK CORE OF 5 KNOTS AND A SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED OVER \r\n120NM TO THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY \r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, GOOD DUAL-CHANNEL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW \r\nAND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C, OFFSET BY MID-LEVEL \r\nDRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE NOT IN \r\nAGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT, WITH ECMWF, GFS AND GEFS FORECASTING NO MODEL \r\nDEVELOPMENT DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, WHILE NAVGEM AND \r\nECENS FORECAST WEAK/BORDERLINE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nREMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"