"ABPW10 PGTW 140600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/140600Z-150600ZJAN2026//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140121ZJAN2026//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n7.8N 131.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8N 132.4E, APPROXIMATELY 138 NM WEST \r\nOF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A \r\nCONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP \r\nCONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS, A 140034Z \r\nMETOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS AREAS OF ELEVATED WINDS TO THE NORTH AS \r\nWELL AS A WELL DEFINED AND SYMMETRICAL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT \r\nWITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES \r\n(29-30 C) OFFSET WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS). GLOBAL \r\nDETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 91W WILL CONTINUE TO \r\nINTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO IN FAIR \r\nAGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 140130) \r\nFOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n20.3S 160.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.7S 159.9E, APPROXIMATELY 563 NM \r\nNORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED FAR TO THE \r\nNORTHEAST.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE \r\nENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KTS), \r\nMODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 \r\nC). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT OVER THE \r\nNEXT 3-4 DAYS, HOWEVER, THEY ARE CURRENTLY UNDERESTIMATING THE \r\nSTRUCTURE OF 94P. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 \r\nTO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 \r\nMB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE."