"ABPW10 PGTW 200600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZJAN2026//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200151ZJAN2026//\r\nREF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191291ZJAN2026//\r\nNARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nFORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n6.3N 146.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 145.3E, APPROXIMATELY 411 NM \r\nSOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A \r\nBROAD AND DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION \r\nALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A \r\nMARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR \r\n(20 TO 25 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). ECENS \r\nIS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OUT OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS, HOWEVER, THE \r\nDETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE MUCH MORE HESITANT ON THE CONSOLIDATION OF \r\n92W. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 92W TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE \r\nNEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT \r\n12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR \r\n1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n19.4S 162.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5S 162.5E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION \r\nCENTER WITH WEAK FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A \r\nMARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER-\r\nLEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS), \r\nSIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST, AND WARM SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES (27 TO 28 C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 94P TRACKING \r\nSOUTHEASTWARD WITH A BROAD AND ELONGATED WIND FIELD AS IT ATTEMPTS TO \r\nCONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS \r\nARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. \r\nSEE REF B (WTPS21 PGTW 191230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n14.8S 151.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 151.3E, APPROXIMATELY 117 NM \r\nNORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\nDEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING \r\nCONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS \r\nREVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR \r\nEQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR \r\n(15 TO 20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). \r\nGLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 99P TRACKING GENERALLY EASTWARD WITH MARGINAL \r\nDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE \r\nWINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"