"ABPW10 PGTW 201800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/201800Z-210600ZJAN2026//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201351ZJAN2026//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n6.3N 146.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7N 146.6E, APPROXIMATELY 316 NM WEST \r\nOF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND \r\nDISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE \r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY \r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL \r\nOUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KTS), \r\nAND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). ECENS IS THE MOST \r\nAGGRESSIVE OUT OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS, HOWEVER, THE DETERMINISTIC \r\nMODELS ARE MUCH MORE HESITANT ON THE CONSOLIDATION OF 92W. GLOBAL \r\nMODELS SHOW 92W TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO \r\n48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 \r\nKNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n14.8S 151.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 155.6E, APPROXIMATELY 328 NM \r\nEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) \r\nREVEALS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION (LLC), EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS \r\nSOUTHEASTWARD INTO INVEST 94P. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS \r\nFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND \r\nGOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE CONSERVATIVE IN \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF 99P, AND ONLY THE GFS SUPPORTS INTENSIFICATION ABOVE 35 \r\nKNOTS PRIOR TO REACHING NEW CALEDONIA. BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS \r\nENSEMBLES HOWEVER, SUPPORT STRENGTHENING AND INTENSIFICATION OVER THE \r\nNEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEANCE THAT 99P WITH TAKE \r\nA GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nIS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n19.5S 162.5E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM. \r\nDISSIPATED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2).//"