"ABPW10 PGTW 260600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/260600Z-270600ZJAN2026//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n14.5S 164.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 162.1W, APPROXIMATELY 503 NM \r\nEAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A \r\nPOORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). A DEFINED CENTER HAS YET TO FORM AS \r\nTHE WIND FIELD REMAINS HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WITH STRONGER WINDS (35-40 \r\nKTS) ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FLANK OF THE SPCZ WHILE MUCH \r\nWEAKER WINDS (5-10 KTS) MAKE UP THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FLANK. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR \r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO \r\nHIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 94P TRACKING RAPIDLY \r\nSOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE MAINTAINING AN ASYMMETRIC WIND \r\nFIELD. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE CONTINUED \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF 94P COMPARED TO THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS, LIKELY \r\nPICKING UP ON THE PERIPHERAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE \r\nZONE RATHER THAN THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFINED CIRCULATION. \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.6S \r\n166.0E, APPROXIMATELY 234 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA. ANIMATED \r\nMULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND \r\nSOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE \r\nENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL \r\nOUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS), AND WARM \r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 90P \r\nTRACKING GENERALLY EASTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 \r\nHOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 \r\nKNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. \r\nTHE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"