"ABPW10 PGTW 270600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/270600Z-280600ZJAN2026//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270221ZJAN2026//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n18.2S 160.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.3S 159.4W, APPROXIMATELY 492 NM \r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST OF BORA BORA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL VISUAL IMAGERY \r\n(MSI) SHOWS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED AND MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION \r\nCENTER (LLCC) SHOOTING OFF TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. DEEP FLARING \r\nCONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS \r\nCURRENTLY MOVING INTO AN AREA OF MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS \r\nWITH INCREASED VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (20-25KTS), AND POOR OUTFLOW ALOFT. \r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE SUPPORTIVE (27-29C).  GLOBAL MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM KICKING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND EDDYING \r\nSOUTHEAST OF INVEST 90P, WHICH IS BEGINNING TO HOG THE ENERGY IN THE \r\nSPCZ AND DEEPEN.  AS THE CIRCULATION UPSTREAM DEVELOPS, INVEST 94P IS \r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN A TRACKABLE CIRCULATION BUT NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP \r\nTO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL \r\nPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nREMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n14.0S 168.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 168.8E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM \r\nNORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL VISUAL IMAGERY \r\n(MSI) AS WELL AS A 262145Z METOP-C MHS 89V MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT \r\nINVEST 90P COALESCING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). \r\nOVERSHOOTING TOPS ARE OBSERVED IN THE CURVED FORMATIVE BANDING ON THE \r\nNORTHEAST PERIMETER, AND CONVECTION IS DEEPENING NEAR THE LLCC. A \r\n262149Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL CIRCULATION WITH 15-\r\n20KT WINDS PRIMARILY RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE \r\nCIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER A BELT OF LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR \r\n(5-10KTS) WITH DECENT OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND STEADY \r\nDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS BENEFITTING FROM \r\nGRADIENT LEVEL VORTICITY SUPPLIED BY EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED \r\nWITH A MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION PULSE THAT IS MOVING TOWARDS THE \r\nDATELINE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 \r\nKNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 270230) FOR \r\nFURTHE DETAILS.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE."