"ABIO10 PGTW 101800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN \r\nOCEAN/101800Z-111800ZDEC2024//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100751ZDEC2024//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n10.4S 97.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5S 98.1E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM \r\nNORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND.  ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT INVEST 91S WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH \r\nPERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. A 081413Z ASCAT \r\nMETOP-B 50 KM PARTIAL PASS REVEALS 15-20 KT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND \r\nSOUTH OF THE LLCC. AS FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS, 91S IS IN A \r\nMARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES OF 29-30C OFFSET BY WEAK POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND \r\nMODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS. LASTLY, GLOBAL \r\nDETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM REMAINING NEARLY \r\nQUASI-STATIONARY, WHILE BACKING OFF ON THE DEVELOPMENT ODDS FOR 91S. \r\nGLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE CIRCULATION IS UNLIKELY \r\nTO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, AND \r\nENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE \r\nPROBABILITIES FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE \r\nESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED \r\nTO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n15.2S 115.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 111.1E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM \r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A \r\n101330Z ASCAT-B 25KM ASCENDING SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALS A \r\nCIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KNOTS OF WIND BECOMING MORE ELONGATED AND \r\nASYMMETRIC. ADDITIONALLY, DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LOW \r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT \r\nINVEST 93S IS IN AN AREA OF WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND \r\nHAS FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, THESE FAVORABLE FACTORS \r\nARE OFFSET BY HIGH (GREATER THAN 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. \r\nNUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SLOW CONSOLIDATION OF \r\nINVEST 93S. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL \r\nCONTINUE ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 \r\nHOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 \r\nKNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.\r\n      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n9.2S 129.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 128.1E, APPROXIMATELY 196 NM \r\nNORTHWEST OF DARWIN. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A \r\nBROAD AND WEAKLY DEFINED ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION, WITH FLARING \r\nCONVECTION BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AROUND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER \r\n(LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 94S IS IN A \r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (30-31C) SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW VERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE EXPECTING THE SYSTEM TO \r\nGENERALLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM \r\nCONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED \r\nAT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR \r\n1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"