{"ObservationDate":"2024-12-09T21:30:00","Latitude":-9.2,"Longitude":129.7,"Windspeed":18.0,"Pressure":1005.0,"Identifier":"INVEST 94S","PotentialStatus":"LOW","OriginalBulletin":["ABIO10 PGTW 092130","MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//","SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN ","REISSUED/092130Z-101800ZDEC2024//","REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091951ZDEC2024//","AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//","RMKS/","   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.","   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.","   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:","      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR ","11.0S 62.4E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE ","PARA. 2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.","      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR ","8.5S 100.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 97.4E, APPROXIMATELY 107 NM ","NORTH-NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) ","SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT INVEST 91S WITH A FULLY EXPOSED ","LLCC WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. A ","081413Z ASCAT METOP-B 50 KM PARTIAL PASS REVEALS 15-20 KT WINDS TO THE ","NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC. AS FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS, 91S IS ","IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA ","SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C OFFSET BY WEAK POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL ","OUTFLOW AND MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 25-30 KT. LASTLY, ","GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM REMAINING ","NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY, WHILE BACKING OFF ON THE DEVELOPMENT ODDS FOR ","91S. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE CIRCULATION IS ","UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 ","HOURS, AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE ","PROBABILITIES FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ","ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED ","TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT ","TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.","      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR ","16.5S 117.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 115.7E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM ","NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A ","BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION, WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL ","CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, A 091038Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE ","IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION, WITH FRAGMENTED ","FORMATIVE BANDING SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ","ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 93S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ","FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD ","EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW  (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ","GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL GENERALLY ","TRACK SOUTHWEST WARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE ","WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ","ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ","SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.","      (4) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR ","10.2S 129.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 129.7E, APPROXIMATELY 211 NM ","NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ","A BROAD AND WEAKLY DEFINED ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION, WITH FLARING ","CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AROUND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ","(LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 94S IS IN A ","FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (30-31C) SEA ","SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW VERTICAL ","WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE EXPECTING THE SYSTEM TO ","GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM ","CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED ","AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR ","1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL ","CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.","      (5) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.","   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.","3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO WARNING ","STATUS.//"]}